In my opinion, it's time to start making what sensible preparations you can for a possible monkeypox wave
I’m writing this not so much in a spirit of analysis, as as spirit of trying to help. It’s a PSA. The thing about writing something like this is that it’s really possible you’ll look very silly six months after, so let me say, these are just tentative reflections.
This graph is logarithmic confirmed and suspected cases of Monkeypox by the day of report, with 7-day averages. It’s basically a straight line going up. If anything it has a slight inflection point around June 114th. Based on the complex and inscrutable arts of extrapolating straight lines on graphs, I think it’s quite possible this disease will be very prevalent soon. For example, in the 1000’s of cases daily in the United States in 3-6 months (let’s say 40% probability).
Here are the numbers for the United States. Although the absolute numbers are still low, the logarithmic trend is very clear and stable (again, 7 day cases average, log numbers, by date of report NOT by date of confirmation):
Three things are important to note in this respect:
From what we know (and I add that caveat given the “COVID can’t spread through the air debacle”) Monkeypox is spread by much closer contact than COVID-19.
The current Monkeypox outbreak has a very low fatality rate.
We already have a working vaccine, the Smallpox vaccine. We just need to produce it in sufficient quantities.
All of these suggest a more manageable situation. Do keep in mind though that this strain of the virus, which from what I can tell has developed notably in the last few years (2018-2022) may have surprises. I can’t really say much more than that, I’m not a biologist.
What I am is a social scientist and I can say pretty clearly that the human side is less positive. The future is inscrutable. It’s entirely possible everything is going to turn out fine. We need to be sober, sensible, but aware. That said, the factors I see are:
The political situation is more unstable now.
The economic situation is more unstable now.
We are dangerously complacent about pandemics post COVID. The elite consensus is that we overreacted to COVID.
Monkeypox has been linked to men who have sex with men in the popular imagination. I have no idea whether it does affect MSM disproportionately, or if this is just reporting bias. However, it will likely stick for many- after all they will want to believe it. They will want scapegoats.
Homosexuality has been repoliticized recently. with claims, that LGBTQ people are “groomers”, Thomas Clarence’s claim that Lawrence v. Texas was wrongly decided, and violent attacks and attempts at attacks on LGBTQ events.
The ongoing disgraceful attacks on trans people continue. Although I have not yet seen any claims that trans people are particularly likely to contract monkeypox, I suspect that whether this is true or not, such claims will be fabricated.
There’s a palpable sense of political violence in the air. I often think about the 50-year waves of violence, in line with Turchin’s predictions, at approximately 1870, 1920, 1970. Also the rising percentage of respondents who say that political violence can be acceptable in surveys.
So we face a potentially dangerous situation due to Monkeypox (and honestly, maybe just in general). Not just biologically, but socially and economically. I’d recommend the following steps:
If, for some reason, you have access to the smallpox vaccine, you are eligible to take it, and your doctor says it’s okay, take it.
If you are LGBTQ and you live in an area that seems like it might turn against LGBTQ people, make plans to be able to get out of there fast. Drop a line to friends or family that live in safer areas- reconnect, although without necessarily raising this topic explicitly (you don’t want to seem paranoid). If things get worse, have a go bag. Take other mobility-increasing steps.
Whoever you are, if it’s possible, try to save a bit of money.
As a matter of disaster preparedness, it’s always worth connecting with neighbors and people who live close by.
If you’re on the job hunt, think about how recession-proof and stable your options are.
I don’t want to encourage panic buying, but a moderate store of non-perishable foods is always a reasonable thing to have, whatever the circumstances.
Generally speaking, keep the situation in mind. Be alert but not alarmed.
Help others.
Edit: I have been challenged to criticize my own concerns. To my mind the best criticisms are:
A) The fatality rate of this strain of Monkeypox is so low, especially in wealthy countries that even if it explodes, it won’t matter that much.
B) The specific LGBTQ concerns are, and I make no secret about this, more speculative than the rest.
Although, as always, the most likely outcome is that we’ll all be okay, other than the low fatality rate and existing vaccine, in some ways, it is difficult to imagine how the situation could be more troubling. I see:
1. An exponentially growing virus.
2. Just after another one.
3. At a time of economic and political instability.
4. The virus is connected to a subaltern social group.
5. Who we are in the midst of a moral panic about.
So even though I’m probably harming my own reputation by writing this, because most likely nothing will happen, I think it’s important that at least some of us sound the alarm.