This was originally a note, but I liked it so much that I promoted it.
You are a blind idiot god. Every time you get out of bed in the morning, the exact way you get out of bed, through chaos and the propagation of minuscule changes determines:
Who will be born in the case of virtually everyone conceived after you get out of bed, with any exceptions coming in the next couple of days.
The timing of countless deaths.
The content and timing of thoughts that will pop into people’s heads
Given enough time, wars and rumors of wars.
Possibly whether or not humanity survives the next millennium.
If anyone alive in, say, 1886, had stayed in bed for a few more minutes one morning, Hitler would never have been born. Perhaps for socioeconomic reasons, something like World War II would eventually have happened- none of this is to deny patterns and deep processes in history. However, it’s also possible that World War II wouldn’t have happened, that it would have been substantially better or that it would have been substantially worse. Capitalist competition, imperialism, and inter-imperialist rivalry, all but necessitate war, but the exact shape- and casualty figures- of those wars are molded by the silliest chances.
Imagine you knew all of your options and their consequences. You would see that every action you take, insomuch as chaos guarantees it will change the world profoundly, would be sure to move the time of death of at least one person closer. Thus, doing anything at all would be a kind of trolley problem.
Our problem is not that we lack power. Our problem is that the vast majority of our power is used involuntarily, and we have no idea what effect it will have. This is, admittedly, much like not having the power at all.
Sometimes I drive myself mad thinking that if I’d just got out of bed yesterday in exactly the right way, I could have all the bliss I desire, as I started the perfect day full of wondrous coincidences that would make my life paradisical forever. Sometimes I even think I could do this for all humanity, maybe not straight away, but as a sequence of dominos fell, guiding humanity safely through the next 50 years of social upheaval and technological growth. But here we are, back on earth as it is, stuffed full of ignorance. Ever adrift in an ocean of worlds that could be, thrashing around, blind idiot gods.
I don't see any reason why this would be true? Not all systems are chaotic, and many are self-correcting by design. Many paths can lead to a macroscopically similar outcome.
Will Macaskill has somewhat similar ideas which they call the 'paralysis argument'. https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/?