Yes, the Greens have reached the point where they can almost guarantee a Senate quota in every state, even as other left-of-Labor parties and candidates have emerged. And while teals aren't left of Labor in every way, they are much better on most non-economic issues, and not notably worse on the economics.
Indeed, and it's notable we don't even need to include the Teals to see this trend- and that 'teals' as a category poorly captures some emerging progressive independents.
Nit picking... Should you move Australia's Voice from the Right of Labor listing and move it to the Left of Labor column?
While we were in the line to Vote, my (voting age) kids asked "what is Australia's Voice?". I had them somewhere between the Labor and the LNP in my personal how to vote card. So we googled them. Based on that google we moved them up.
Thanks for this! It really goes to show the benefits of ranked-choice voting. After all, in Canada, with similar issues at stake, the Left-of-Liberals vote *completely collapsed*, because those voters felt they had to prioritize keeping out the Trumpy Conservatives.
Insightful context and corrective analysis however I still think it is a bit glass half full. We have had the most small c conservative Labor government of a lifetime (ever?) and there is no apparently no notable segment of the electorate sufficiently disappointed as to move to the party with a cohesive, well defined political economic agenda to their left. I think that is significant. Yes there are broader leftish parties (and I’m sceptical about how much political economic significance we can read into votes for some of those parties) but even there the change was pretty muted relative to how much the government disappointed left progressives.
I think large parts of this electoral block you’re drawing together here are not really “left of Labor” in a meaningful sense. I preference Animal Justice first every election, but I don’t consider myself left wing. The same is probably true for many who vote for Legalise Cannabis, Fusion etc. This is relevant because this loose grouping probably couldn’t be consolidated into any kind of effective coalition other than what already exists with the Greens.
AJP and legalize cannabis tend to vote left wherever they get in, fusion is debatable, but doesn't make much difference to the numbers either way. I agree that- e.g. many legalise cannabis voters may not be leftwing, or at least may not be very explicit in their politics, but when I was thinking about this, I reflected that (1) People get dragged along by movements all the time, despite not always sharing 100% of the politics involved- but we tend to think the participation is what is most important. (2) Most importantly, the preference flows of all these parties are highly left-slanted
Agreed about the parties being left wing in actuality, but I don’t see any mechanism that will “pull people along with the movement” here. The greens have a big social media presence, sympathetic coverage from the ABC and support from the environmental movement that allows them to communicate with their voters and create homogeneity around a socialist environmentalist vision, but these other parties often have almost zero media presence and many of their voters probably don’t have a high resolution understanding of what the parties are about. I could be wrong but I don’t see this as representing concrete public support for a full spectrum “left of labor” agenda.
The edited commenter was close, but missed the point. The real problem is in projecting a coherent party line ideology onto the voters. Research consistently shows that voters barely resemble ideologues. If you saw the actual policy beliefs of minor party voters, you'd be stunned. As a heuristic, always keep in mind the image of the guy with the sign "Get Government Hands off my Medicare" (in both the left wing and right wing incarnations).
Yes, the Greens have reached the point where they can almost guarantee a Senate quota in every state, even as other left-of-Labor parties and candidates have emerged. And while teals aren't left of Labor in every way, they are much better on most non-economic issues, and not notably worse on the economics.
Indeed, and it's notable we don't even need to include the Teals to see this trend- and that 'teals' as a category poorly captures some emerging progressive independents.
Great article. Thank you.
Nit picking... Should you move Australia's Voice from the Right of Labor listing and move it to the Left of Labor column?
While we were in the line to Vote, my (voting age) kids asked "what is Australia's Voice?". I had them somewhere between the Labor and the LNP in my personal how to vote card. So we googled them. Based on that google we moved them up.
https://australiasvoice.com.au/
Based on the name my thoughts were not positive, but ...
They seem to have been started by Fatima Payman, who left the Labor party over concern about
Australia's complicity in the massacre of civilians in Gaza.
Some policies:
* Raise Jobseeker
* Address Poverty
* Raise remote area allowance
* Real Climate Action
* Scrap AUKUS
* Raise HECS payment thresholds
* "Action on" Negative Gearing / CGT Discount
* Make Banking code of conduct Mandatory
* Break up big supermarkets
* Reduce politician's pay
* Make Australia a Republic
* End Genocide in Gaza
* Tax resource extraction more
* Divide Super after domestic violence separation
* Parliamentary vote before war
That does not seem to the right of Labor to me.
You are quite right, and I regret the error. Fortunately their results do not change the numbers.
Thanks for this! It really goes to show the benefits of ranked-choice voting. After all, in Canada, with similar issues at stake, the Left-of-Liberals vote *completely collapsed*, because those voters felt they had to prioritize keeping out the Trumpy Conservatives.
Insightful context and corrective analysis however I still think it is a bit glass half full. We have had the most small c conservative Labor government of a lifetime (ever?) and there is no apparently no notable segment of the electorate sufficiently disappointed as to move to the party with a cohesive, well defined political economic agenda to their left. I think that is significant. Yes there are broader leftish parties (and I’m sceptical about how much political economic significance we can read into votes for some of those parties) but even there the change was pretty muted relative to how much the government disappointed left progressives.
I think large parts of this electoral block you’re drawing together here are not really “left of Labor” in a meaningful sense. I preference Animal Justice first every election, but I don’t consider myself left wing. The same is probably true for many who vote for Legalise Cannabis, Fusion etc. This is relevant because this loose grouping probably couldn’t be consolidated into any kind of effective coalition other than what already exists with the Greens.
AJP and legalize cannabis tend to vote left wherever they get in, fusion is debatable, but doesn't make much difference to the numbers either way. I agree that- e.g. many legalise cannabis voters may not be leftwing, or at least may not be very explicit in their politics, but when I was thinking about this, I reflected that (1) People get dragged along by movements all the time, despite not always sharing 100% of the politics involved- but we tend to think the participation is what is most important. (2) Most importantly, the preference flows of all these parties are highly left-slanted
Agreed about the parties being left wing in actuality, but I don’t see any mechanism that will “pull people along with the movement” here. The greens have a big social media presence, sympathetic coverage from the ABC and support from the environmental movement that allows them to communicate with their voters and create homogeneity around a socialist environmentalist vision, but these other parties often have almost zero media presence and many of their voters probably don’t have a high resolution understanding of what the parties are about. I could be wrong but I don’t see this as representing concrete public support for a full spectrum “left of labor” agenda.
Would be good to see the combined Senate vote of the parties to the right of the LNP plotted for comparison.
Seems a lot to do with Australian immigration policy
Is the ranked ballot system changing?
The edited commenter was close, but missed the point. The real problem is in projecting a coherent party line ideology onto the voters. Research consistently shows that voters barely resemble ideologues. If you saw the actual policy beliefs of minor party voters, you'd be stunned. As a heuristic, always keep in mind the image of the guy with the sign "Get Government Hands off my Medicare" (in both the left wing and right wing incarnations).