What would go through my head if I found out aliens were visiting us

This is not an endorsement of the idea aliens are visiting us. Nor is it specifically a rejection of the idea that aliens are visiting us. Who am I to comment on that? I find it unlikely for a variety of reasons, I haven’t done any serious research. This is a bit of fun- nothing more. I’m particularly suss of the people who are talking about this right now, so if anything I’m more skeptical than usual.

My real instincts are to agree with Felix here:

But let’s have some fun speculating nonetheless. Here is my best attempt to analyze what’s happening if those craft are of extraterrestrial origin.

Scenario 1: Those fast movers in the military videos that have been released are alien craft

First up, I’d just note that we can’t rule out the following possibilities:

1. They’re extradimensional beings, they’re not really from outer space

2. This is a simulation, they’re not really from outer space.

3. They’re from a prior civilization on earth or elsewhere in our solar system. They’re occluded to us in some way- they’ve gone under the surface of a planet, or uploaded themselves to computers hidden somewhere in the solar system or… In any case they’re not really from outer space.

4. IDK, time travel or some nonsense like that.

Beyond that there’s a few odd things here. The most odd is why are they doing these stunts- changing acceleration at like 100gs in a particular direction? There’s no plausible reconnaissance or safety reason I can think of for it- I don’t think it’s necessary to avoid possible attack by the fighter jet filming them. I don’t know a great deal about fighter jets but it doesn’t look to me like they’re trying to stay safe from the jets? This suggests to me that they doing these stunts because they want us to suspect they’re here, but they don’t want us to know so they haven’t done something more obvious. Or maybe they don’t realize how Alien skeptical we are, and they think their stunts have already given us ample evidence, and we’re just sitting here mostly still oblivious like chumps.

I suspect that if there are aliens and a bunch of the disputed “proof of aliens craft” footage is really aliens, then aliens -at the very least- are not that worried about us discovering their existence. I think that you could do reconnaissance much more stealthily than that! I admit, I have no proof of this, maybe it’s just really hard to get the data they want at the detail they want without giving the game away, and yet…

Now the next question is, if they can travel here, why haven’t they turned the stars into Matrioshka brains inside Dyson spheres or at least colonized earth? And if not these specific aliens watching us, why not another, more expansionist species? The most natural partial explanation, I think is that this is a wildlife preserve. They’re keeping an eye on us, and warding off other aliens.

What configuration of values would prompt this though? If diverse life, intelligent or otherwise, is their goal, preserves don’t seem like the best way to do it. In theory, you could use the earth and the rest of the matter of the solar system to produce vastly more worlds where life could arise, engineering on a vast scale. It just doesn’t make much sense. Maybe they have some kind of commitment to a diversity of life arising through ‘pristine’ ‘natural’ means?

Most of my reasoning so far is based on the idea of an intelligence explosion through recursive improvement subsequent to developing AI. The conjecture is that any civilization significantly more advanced than us (let’s say a hundred years to be on the safe side) it is maximally advanced. Their technology is about as good as you can get, because they developed computers that could make themselves smarter and smarter, and thus they solved all problems that intelligence could feasibly solve.

If that’s wrong, I guess an alternative scenario is that they haven’t made the galaxy into an mega-engineered garden because they lack the technology capability. Or maybe mega-engineering stars and planets is impossible whatever your tech level, a humbling thought, and thus they value this little blue ball.

So are they monitoring us for interest, or because they’re worried about something or both? That’s a great question. In some ways it’s the question. And if they are worried about us, is it because they’re worried we’ll harm ourselves? Because they’re worried we’ll become their rivals? Because they’re worried AI we create will become their rivals?

I absolutely think- within very broad limits- if they tell us to do something, we should obey, but I’m also very concerned about a possibility that powerful people and state actors could use bad faith inferences about “what the aliens want” to structure policy to their advantage.

It is unlikely, unlikely but possible, that the aliens are what I would consider “fully benevolent”. They’ve stood by while the great atrocities of history have happened so that’s prima facie evidence against their full benevolence. Now there are a few arguments- some of them really far out- that could justify their behavior, but I’m skeptical. Of course, this leaves a broad spectrum of benignity and malignity that they could fall onto, but “probably not fully benevolent” is a troubling start.

Scenario 2: A craft and “biologicals” are recovered, as per the rumor circulating at the moment

Much, but not all of the above would still apply if we found bodies, but I would find finding bodies exceedingly surprising- twice as surprising again as finding alien craft

For one thing, I see little reason that biological forms will be popular in the future. For another, even if aliens do have biological forms, it seems a long lonely way to be from anything. From everything I know, it seems unlikely there’s a loophole that allows faster than light travel in the laws of physics, and simply finding alien craft wouldn’t make me reconsider it, but biological aliens? It might make me wonder if they’d found a method of FTL travel, since that’s what it would take to get here without a vast time commitment.

One possibility is:

1. They consider it very important to monitor us, important enough to sacrifice large chunks of their life- and in some cases die- and

2. They can’t just send drones because have a commitment to not using artificial intelligence- at least of certain sorts. The most natural, but certainly not the only reason for why would be safety concerns.

Interestingly, 2 gives a natural explanation of 1 (although not the only explanation). They’re monitoring us to make sure we don’t develop artificial superintelligence.

Also worth noting that the biologicals could potentially not be from the instigating species- e.g. they could be little flesh drones, this would allow them to send out reconnaissance craft without relying on AI.

I do think if there are biologicals in these craft, there has to be a good reason. We can just about manage drones with 2023 technology! Granted they’re not interstellar, but these guys are so far ahead of us, automation shouldn’t be a challenge. My money is either on some kind of opposition to AI, or some kind of sentimental motivation for sending flesh (thrill seeking, spirituality etc.).