Or, they're rubbernecking spectators gathering to witness the impending Earthly cataclysms in the form of either or both of (a) superintelligent AI paper-clipping us into oblivion, or (b) mutual assured nuclear destruction.

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Jun 17·edited Jun 17

I've been meaning to look into this since the recent news, ya know just for purposes of day to day conversation, but putting it off because I have and have always had a very strong opinion, that none of the reported observations have anything to do with aliens and never will. I consider it a silly issue, but this is due to my personality, politics, priors about what aliens should be like, and only bits and pieces of information I've half paid attention to over decades, mostly forgotten. So I don't have enough information to put together an argument convincing to someone even slightly off my wavelength. However, maybe it would be worth the effort.. I recently read a lesswrong post (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nwJCzszw8gGjPTihM/i-still-think-it-s-very-unlikely-we-re-observing-alien). Terrible argument in my opinion but I've always known that rationalists in general and even lesswrongers tend to consider observable aliens unlikely, reading the comments I get the feeling this is still the case. Now here's one of those rare cases where rat adjacent and hard leftists have some agreement, and even entertain a shared hypothesis: that this is a gaslighting campaign by US intelligence and defense institutions. There's even something of a consensus about this on the left, or the leftists I pay attention to anyway, I don't think this is quite the case on the rat side. One notable left exception would be David Sirota, which I learned from an episode of his podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pentagon-whistleblower-the-government-is-hiding-non/id1624265228?i=1000617129711), I like the guy despite his arrogance, and I think he's pretty smart, and while I've yelled at him across the void listening to other episodes, this one takes the cake.. but anyway I do think he's an exception. Even better, both sides seem to realize that if this is a government misdirection conspiracy, it's not just to cover up secret aircraft or other technological research, because there's no way that any government has developed tech that would explain what we see in video footage and some eye witness reports. So I think there may be an opportunity here, not to rat pill any leftists, I don't think that's really possible, but to do something I thought was so unlikely it didn't enter my mind last night. Maybe, just maybe, we could left pill some of the rationalists by getting them into the mindset that the military and intelligence institutions don't just want us confused about secret programs, but to be confused in general, helpless and unable to effect change. By Matt Christman's definition of fascism, which I think is an elegant one, we would have here a prototypical example of fascist behavior, and an extremely well coordinated and ambitious one at that, and there's one very natural antidote to fascism which I am personally invested in.

And just to be clear, I am confused and uncertain about just about everything, including this issue. I have only four hypothesis, which I think you already mentioned in your essay (didn't re-read it sorry), in order of likelihood:

1. The US government and possibly its allies are fucking with us, just to confuse us in general so they can go about living our their west wing or jack ryan type fantasy lives with little interference

2. We're in a simulation run by our descendants or our inventions, they are fucking with us for unknown reasons, possibly just for fun

3. It's aliens, they're fucking with us for unknown reasons, probably reasons more meaningful than lolz

4. It's aliens, they're not fucking with us, they literally just fucked up

In my mind 1 is the clear winner, but I'm embarrassed by how much credence I give #s 2, 3, so I won't put my numbers down, they won't match with anyone I'd consider sane probably, perhaps I am one of them, wouldn't like that one bit

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